Ten safest Conservative seats in 2010 - where are they now?

30 May 2024

In the 14 years since 2010, there have been three general elections (excluding 2010), four referendums, five prime ministers and seven chancellors. In this time, boundary changes and shifting voter intentions have significantly changed the electoral landscape. Of the ten safest Tory seats in the 2010 election, they appear on track to retain eight and lose two: Greg Hands in Chelsea and Fulham, and Adam Afriyie in Windsor.

Out of 306 Conservative seats, Rishi Sunak’s current seat of Richmond (Yorks), at that time represented by former party leader William Hague, was the safest Conservative seat (by percentage majority).

South Holland and The Deepings and Rayleigh and Wickford were their second and third safest seats respectively, followed by Chelsea and Fulham, Beaconsfield, Broxbourne, Maldon, Aldridge-Brownhills, Witney and Windsor.

But since then a lot has changed. First, the 2024 election will be fought under new boundaries, with 76 constituencies enlarged, 73 reduced in size and a small number being largely new (with no obvious predecessor).

This means that some previously very safe seats are now not so safe, even before changes in voter intentions are considered. And voting intentions have significantly changed.

In 2010, the Conservatives won 36.9% of the vote in Great Britain (29.7% Labour, 23.6% Lib Dem), while current polls suggest this may now be as low as 20.0% (YouGov 27-28 May).

So what does this mean for safe Conservative seats? Well, there are not many to find.

MRP polling suggests that the Conservatives may be left with only 19 seats with a majority of 10% or more. Meanwhile, of their ten safest seats in 2010, they appear on course to retain eight and lose two (Chelsea and Fulham, and Windsor).

10. Windsor (2010 majority: 38.4%; 2024 prediction: Lab gain)

What happened in 2010?
Adam Afriyie, MP for Windsor continually since 2005, was re-elected with 60.8% of the vote - a majority of 38.4% (19.054) over the Lib Dems.

How have boundaries changed?
Windsor’s constituency boundaries have been revised for 2024. For the updated Windsor constituency, 71% of people overlap with the previous Windsor constituency. Of the remaining 29%, 16% are from Runnymede and Weybridge and 13% are from Slough.

What is the current prediction?
Windsor is set to be a marginal seat. MRP polls generally point towards a Labour win, while the uniform national swing model suggests a Conservative hold.

View Windsor constituency map and voting intention data

9. Witney (2010 majority: 39.4%; 2024 prediction: Con hold)

What happened in 2010?
In 2010, Witney was David Cameron’s seat, having been Witney’s MP since 2001. He won by a majority of 39.4% (22,740), with his future coalition partners, the Lib Dems, coming second.

How have boundaries changed?
74% of the previous Witney constituents remain in the updated Witney constituency, with most of the remainder coming from Wantage.

What is the current prediction?
Current MP Robert Courts is predicted to retain his seat.

View Witney constituency map and voting intention data

8. Aldridge-Brownhills (2010 majority: 39.5%; 2024 prediction: Con hold)

What happened in 2010?
Richard Shepherd was re-elected, having held the seat since 1979. He did so with a majority of 39.5% (15,266) over Labour.

How have boundaries changed?
The Aldridge-Brownhills constituency is largely the same (83% of population retained), with part of the old Walsall South constituency now also included.

What is the current prediction?
Conservatives are predicted to hold the seat, although MRP polling suggests they may only do so by a few percentage points.

View Aldridge-Brownhills constituency map and voting intention data

7. Maldon (2010 majority: 40.5%; 2024 prediction: Con hold)

What happened in 2010?
Maldon was retained in 2010 by John Whittingdale, with a majority of 40.5% (19,407), having held the seat and its predecessors since 1992.

How have boundaries changed?
There are minor boundary changes for 2024, with 94% of the previous electorate retained, with 6% joining from Chelmsford.

What is the current prediction?
Maldon is one of the few constituencies which is set to remain a safe Conservative seat, with MRP polling suggesting a majority of around 14%.

View Maldon constituency map and voting intention data

6. Broxbourne (2010 majority: 41.2%; 2024 prediction: Con hold)

What happened in 2010?
In 2010, Broxbourne was won for the second time by Charles Walker, with a majority of 41.2% (18,804) over Labour.

How have boundaries changed?
91% of Broxbourne constituency’s previous population has been retained (albeit only 59% by area), with the remainder coming from Hertford and Stortford.

What is the current prediction?
Both MRP and uniform national swing models are predicting a marginal Conservative hold.

View Broxbourne constituency map and voting intention data

5. Beaconsfield (2010 majority: 41.5%; 2024 prediction: Con hold)

What happened in 2010?
Dominic Grieve retained Beaconsfield for the third time in 2010, with a majority of 41.5% (21,782). He would go on to become attorney general under David Cameron’s government, before having the Conservative whip removed in 2019 by Boris Johnson over Brexit.

How have boundaries changed?
Constituency boundaries have not been changed.

What is the current prediction?
Joy Morrissey is predicted to retain Beaconsfield for the Conservatives with a significant, but far from sweeping, majority of c.11%.

View Beaconsfield constituency map and voting intention data

4. Chelsea and Fulham (2010 majority: 42.0%; 2024 prediction: Lab win)

What happened in 2010?
Future Conservative Party chairman, Greg Hands, won the newly created seat with a majority of 42.0% (16,722) over Labour. Having been an MP since 2005 (originally for Hammersmith and Fulham), he has held numerous ministerial positions since, including as Chief Secretary to the Treasury.

How have boundaries changed?
The updated constituency retains 82% of the previous boundaries, with 17% coming from Hammersmith and 1% from Kensington.

What is the current prediction?
Both MRP and uniform national swing models are predicting a significant Labour win.

View Chelsea and Fulham constituency map and voting intention data

3. Rayleigh and Wickford (2010 majority: 42.7%; 2024 prediction: Con hold)

What happened in 2010?
Rayleigh and Wickford was won by Mark Francois with a majority of 42.7% (22,338) over the Lib Dems. He had previously held the seat of Rayleigh since 2001, and went on to become one of the Conservative Party’s most prominent Brexiteers, chairing the European Research Group (ERG).

How have boundaries changed?
Constituency boundaries have not been changed.

What is the current prediction?
The Conservatives are predicted to retain the seat with a reduced majority of c.10%.

View Rayleigh and Wickford constituency map and voting intention data

2. South Holland and The Deepings (2010 majority: 43.6%; 2024 prediction: Con hold)

What happened in 2010?
Current MP John Hayes retained the seat with a majority of 43.6% (21,880), having been its MP since 1997. Over this time, he has held seven ministerial positions and been a member of eight parliamentary committees.

How have boundaries changed?
Constituency boundaries have not been changed.

What is the current prediction?
The Conservatives are predicted to retain the seat by a majority of >13%, with Reform potentially winning 21% of the vote.

View South Holland and The Deepings constituency map and voting intention data

1. Richmond (Yorks) (2010 majority: 43.7%; 2024 prediction: Con hold)

What happened in 2010?
Former Conservative Party leader William Hague retained his seat with the Conservative’s largest percentage majority of 43.7% (23,336) over the Lib Dems. Current prime minister and Conservative Party leader, Rishi Sunak, replaced William Hague as MP for Richmond (Yorks) in 2015.

How have boundaries changed?
The constituency has been renamed to Richmond and Northallerton, however is almost identical to the previous Richmond (Yorks) constituency, with 99% of the population being the same.

What is the current prediction?
Rishi Sunak is predicted to retain his seat, albeit with a reduced majority.