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    Polls show six senior Conservative ministers in jeopardy at the next election

    21 March 2024
    The latest polling data suggests that six senior Conservative ministers, including current chancellor Jeremy Hunt and potential leadership contender Penny Mordaunt, may lose their seats at the next election. While name recognition may limit the applicability of national polling swings, they will be also be key targets for rival parties looking to make a splash. So, will we see another Portillo moment?
    1
    Chancellor of the Exchequer

    Jeremy Hunt

    Predicted to Lose seat
    Standing in Godalming and Ash
    [Party]
    [Party]
    [Party]
    [Party]
    [Party]
    Scenario
    Median of MRP polls (shown above)
    Lose seat
    Uniform national swing (-22% Conservative/-3% Lib Dem)
    Lose seat
    2
    Secretary of State for Defence

    Grant Shapps

    Predicted to Lose seat
    Standing in Welwyn Hatfield
    [Party]
    [Party]
    [Party]
    [Party]
    [Party]
    Scenario
    Median of MRP polls (shown above)
    Lose seat
    Uniform national swing (-22% Conservative/+11% Labour)
    Lose seat
    3
    Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice

    Alex Chalk

    Predicted to Lose seat
    Standing in Cheltenham
    [Party]
    [Party]
    [Party]
    [Party]
    [Party]
    Scenario
    Median of MRP polls (shown above)
    Lose seat
    Uniform national swing (-22% Conservative/-3% Lib Dem)
    Lose seat
    4
    Leader of the House of Commons

    Penny Mordaunt

    Predicted to Lose seat
    Standing in Portsmouth North
    [Party]
    [Party]
    [Party]
    [Party]
    [Party]
    Scenario
    Median of MRP polls (shown above)
    Lose seat
    Uniform national swing (-22% Conservative/+11% Labour)
    Retain seat
    5
    Secretary of State for Work and Pensions

    Mel Stride

    Predicted to Lose seat
    Standing in Central Devon
    [Party]
    [Party]
    [Party]
    [Party]
    [Party]
    Scenario
    Median of MRP polls (shown above)
    Lose seat
    Uniform national swing (-22% Conservative/+11% Labour)
    Lose seat
    6
    Secretary of State for Transport

    Mark Harper

    Predicted to Lose seat
    Standing in Forest of Dean
    [Party]
    [Party]
    [Party]
    [Party]
    [Party]
    Scenario
    Median of MRP polls (shown above)
    Lose seat
    Uniform national swing (-22% Conservative/+11% Labour)
    Lose seat