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  • The data on this website is accurate as of 19 June 2024. Find the general election results here.

    Boundary changes and vote swings means significant seat-by-seat uncertainty remains - Polling Update 17 April 2024

    17 April 2024
    Polling since the start of April shows Labour (44% average) sustaining their 20-point lead over the Conservatives (24%) in Great Britain, followed by Reform (13%), the Lib Dems (10%), and the Greens (5%). Despite polling as the third biggest party, Reform is still not predicted to win any seats.

    While there is variance over the extent of Labour’s lead, from 17% (More In Common 15 Apr) to 26% (YouGov 10-11 Apr), the polls are consistent in suggesting a significant lead for Starmer’s Labour. Even in Scotland, Labour are starting to poll ahead of the SNP for the first time since the independence referendum.

    Dotted line = median of polls; lighter area shows range of polls.

    Under a uniform national swing (applying inferred voting intentions as calculated by Rallings and Thrasher), such voting would result in a seat swing between Labour and the Conservatives of 339 seats, leaving Labour with a minimum 36 seat majority.

    Number of seats (excl. NI and Chorley)YouGov MRP 7-27 MarSurvation MRP 8-22 MarUniform National Swing
    Lib Dem492226
    Plaid Cymru421

    Swings applied: -20% Conservative, +12% Labour, -2% Lib Dem, +11% Reform, +2% Green, -1% SNP, -1% Plaid Cymru

    The two recent MRP polls, which seek to predict constituency-level voting through statistical modelling, suggest Labour may win an even more commanding majority. However, these two polls differ significantly in their predictions for the Lib Dems and SNP. For a good comparison of the two MRPs, see Mark Pack’s recent substack.

    So how well do the MRP predictions match up? Of the 631 seats predicted (excluding Northern Ireland and Chorley, speaker Lindsay Hoyle’s seat), the two MRP polls agree on the winning party in 81% of cases (508 seats). In addition, the winner of 467 seats (74%) is also consistent with a uniform national swing prediction model. Overall, this suggests around a quarter of seats are still to play for.

    However, there is still a lot of uncertainty over which parties are best placed to contest each seat. Of the 631 seats, the MRP polls disagree on the top two parties one-third of the time (213 seats), with this uncertainty increasing to more than half of the seats (53%) if we extend the comparison to also include the uniform national swing predictions.

    This matters for tactical voting. The changing of constituency boundaries in addition to large shifts in voting intentions since 2019 has combined to significantly complicate tactical voting options.

    Furthermore, for parties, how contestable a seat is will affect how many resources are put towards it. And unsurprisingly, with support for the Conservatives so low, the number of safe seats is dramatically reducing, with many senior Tories at risk of losing their seats at the next election. Therefore, if you live in one of these contestable seats, expect to see a lot more fliers, a lot more doorknocking, and even more social media adverts over the coming months.

    ThisVoteCounts, 17 March 2024

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